The Problem: EB-2 NIW Approval Rates Are Dropping For Many Applicants
How The EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Works
The EB-2 NIW approval rate is the percentage of I-140 petitions under the National Interest Waiver that USCIS approves in a fiscal year. Many founders use this number to judge how competitive the self-petition green card path has become. Today, the data looks intimidating and is pushing some qualified founders away from a category they could still win.
Key Takeaways
- EB-2 NIW approval rates dropped from about 80% in FY2023 to 42.6–48.1% in early FY2026 because of a surge in filings and stricter USCIS scrutiny under the Dhanasar framework.
- Aggregate statistics do not control individual outcomes, and well-documented founder petitions with measurable US impact still reach approval rates of 75% or higher.
- Success depends on a clearly articulated proposed endeavor with substantial merit, a documented track record of funding, patents, media coverage, accelerator credentials, and a strong argument for why a waiver benefits the United States.
- Common mistakes such as vague endeavors, generic recommendation letters, and framing impact only at the employer level are driving higher denial and RFE rates.
- Jumpstart Immigration uses a founder-specific evidence framework with a 94–98% approval rate and a 100% refund guarantee, helping qualified founders navigate the current climate and secure approval faster than the market average.
EB-2 NIW Approval Rates By Fiscal Year (FY2023–FY2026)
The Numbers Behind The Trend
| Fiscal Year | Approval Rate | Key Context |
|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | ~80% | Post-EO 14012 surge, broader interpretation of “national interest” |
| FY2024 | ~71% | USCIS begins stricter application of Dhanasar standard |
| FY2025 | 55.2% | Record backlog, Q4 dropped to 35.7% |
| FY2026 (Q1–Q2) | 42.6% – 48.1% | Preliminary, denials still outpacing approvals |
Source: USCIS data via Greenberg Traurig analysis and Manifest Law’s USCIS data compilation.
The downward trend is real, yet it reflects a correction rather than a collapse. FY2022’s ~96% approval rate was an anomaly driven by a small filing pool and a newly broadened policy interpretation after President Biden’s Executive Order 14012. As filings tripled, the average petition became weaker, and USCIS responded with closer scrutiny. The rate is now settling into a new normal where evidence quality, rather than sheer credential volume, drives outcomes.
Why EB-2 NIW Approval Rates Declined For Many Applicants
Three Forces Behind The Multi-Year Drop
Three compounding forces explain the multi-year decline in EB-2 NIW approval rates.
- Application Volume Surge: Filings grew from 21,973 in FY2022 to 66,276 in FY2025, a 200% increase. More petitions create more weak filings in the pool, and USCIS adjudicators are working through a backlog that reached 74,392 pending cases at the end of FY2025.
- Stricter Adjudication: USCIS began applying the Matter of Dhanasar framework with greater rigor. Officers now expect measurable, demonstrated US impact instead of only forward-looking potential or broad sector claims.
- January 2025 Policy Clarification: USCIS Policy Alert PA-2025-03 raised the evidence bar. Petitions must present clearly articulated proposed endeavors, robust objective evidence, and compelling waiver justifications, even though the legal standard stayed the same.
USCIS has not closed the door on founders. Officers raised the bar for everyone and continue to approve petitions that clear it. Healthcare, core STEM, and national-security-adjacent fields still perform well, and well-framed founder cases receive approvals regularly.
What The Approval Rate Decline Means For Your Case
Why Aggregate Statistics Do Not Decide Your Outcome
Approval rates describe what happened to other petitioners in past quarters. They do not predict the result of a specific, well-built case. As Manifest Law immigration attorney Ana Gabriela Urizar explains, approval rates reflect the entire pool, including many premature or weak filings. The decisive factor is whether your petition clearly proves that your work has substantial merit and national importance.
A founder with a documented track record of funding, media coverage, patents, and accelerator alumni status does not compete with the average applicant. The gap between the aggregate EB-2 NIW approval rate, about 48% in Q2 FY2026, and the estimated 75%+ rate for strong, well-documented cases shows the upside for prepared founders.
Jumpstart Immigration reports a 94% approval rate across filed cases in this tougher climate. That result comes from a founder-specific evidence framework that maps credentials directly to the Dhanasar prongs and is executed three to four times faster than the market. Every case is backed by a 100% refund guarantee, including USCIS government fees, if your petition is denied. Book a consultation to see how your profile aligns with the current standard.
How Founders Can Strengthen An EB-2 NIW Petition
The Three Dhanasar Prongs In Founder Language
The Matter of Dhanasar framework governs every EB-2 NIW adjudication. Each prong requires its own evidence and argument.
- Prong 1: Substantial Merit And National Importance
Your work must matter beyond your company. Frame your endeavor narrowly and connect it to a specific, demonstrated US benefit, such as job creation, supply chain resilience, technological innovation, or public health. An improvement that helps one company is valuable. The same method adopted at scale, published, or used in policy discussions reaches national importance. - Prong 2: Well-Positioned To Advance The Endeavor
Show what you have already done, not only what you plan to do. Funding raised, products shipped, teams built, and revenue generated are the signals USCIS weighs most heavily in 2026. - Prong 3: Waiver Benefits The United States
Explain why the PERM labor certification process would harm US interests. For founders, this often means you are self-employed, creating jobs, and building in the United States without an employer sponsor.
Evidence Checklist For Founder Petitions
- Funding Documents: Term sheets, investment agreements, and bank statements that show capital deployed.
- Media Coverage: Articles in major tech or industry publications that highlight you and your company’s impact, not just the sector.
- Patents And Intellectual Property: Granted patents or pending applications that are being used or commercialized.
- Accelerator Alumni Status: Proof of participation in programs such as Y Combinator, Residency, or Techstars that shows external validation.
- Recommendation Letters: Five to seven letters, with at least three to four from independent experts who describe your specific contributions and measurable outcomes.
- Detailed Business Plan: Market analysis, competitive landscape, three to five year financial projections, and concrete milestones that show feasibility and execution readiness.
Common RFE And Denial Triggers For Founders
The Top Pitfalls To Avoid
- Vague Proposed Endeavor: Statements like “I will advance AI in healthcare” lack specificity. Name the problem, your approach, the expected outcome, and the timeline. A stranger should understand and evaluate your plan in two or three sentences.
- Generic Recommendation Letters: Letters that praise character without citing concrete contributions, metrics, or third-party validation carry little weight under current standards.
- Employer-Only Impact Framing: If your evidence shows benefits only for your own company, officers treat it as private benefit. Show how your work extends beyond a single employer.
- Weak Prong 3 Argument: Passing the first two prongs does not guarantee success on the third. Build a separate, explicit argument for why the waiver benefits the United States.
- Credibility Gaps: Inconsistencies between your I-140 and prior filings, such as DS-160 or ETA-9089, can trigger credibility-based RFEs across all three prongs.
An RFE signals that the officer sees gaps and is giving you one focused chance to fix them. Post-RFE approval rates sit around 5.9%, largely because many applicants respond with more weak evidence. A strategic, evidence-rich response built around the Dhanasar prongs can still succeed.
What To Do After An EB-2 NIW Denial
Paths Forward If Your Petition Is Refused
- Reapply With A Stronger Case: This is the most common route. There is no waiting period, but you lose your priority date and must address the specific weaknesses in the denial.
- File A Motion To Reopen Or Reconsider: Use this when the officer misapplied the law or overlooked facts already in the record.
- Appeal To The Administrative Appeals Office (AAO): Consider this when the original record was already strong and you believe the decision was legally or factually incorrect.
- Pivot To Another Visa Category: O-1, EB-1A, or L-1 can fit better depending on your profile, traction, and timing.
Jumpstart Immigration backs every case with a contractual 100% refund guarantee, including USCIS government fees, or a free re-application if your petition is denied. This structure reduces risk for founders who cannot absorb a denial.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is It Difficult To Get An EB-2 NIW?
The EB-2 NIW has become more competitive. The approval rate dropped from roughly 80% in FY2023 to about 48% in Q2 FY2026, and denials currently outpace approvals on a quarterly basis. The difficulty, however, varies by applicant. Well-documented EB-2 NIW petitions that clearly prove all three Dhanasar prongs, including national importance, measurable impact, and a well-positioned petitioner, can reach approval rates of 75% or higher. FY2025 data showed such petitions averaging 74.8%, and STEM petitions with quantifiable national benefit reaching nearly 82%, while the overall EB-2 NIW approval rate stayed near 55%. The legal standard has not changed, but the evidentiary bar has risen since 2024. Founders with funding, patents, media coverage, and accelerator credentials compete in a stronger segment of the pool.
Is The EB-2 NIW Getting Harder?
The evidentiary bar is higher, while the legal standard remains the same. USCIS Policy Alert PA-2025-03, issued in January 2025, clarified how officers should apply the Dhanasar framework. Officers now expect more clearly articulated proposed endeavors, more objective evidence, and more persuasive waiver justifications. Petitions that rely on broad sector claims, generic recommendation letters, or long credential lists without demonstrated impact face higher denial rates than in 2022 or 2023. Petitions built around specific, measurable, well-documented contributions to US priorities continue to receive approvals.
What Is The Expected Success Rate For EB-2 NIW Petitions In 2026?
Based on Q1 and Q2 FY2026 USCIS data, the overall approval rate is tracking between 42.6% and 48.1%. This figure is preliminary and may shift as more quarterly data arrives. The aggregate rate hides a wide spread in outcomes by petition quality. Jumpstart Immigration reports a 98% approval rate across its filed cases, reflecting the impact of a founder-specific evidence framework rather than a generic approach. For founders with strong credentials and a carefully built petition, the realistic success rate is significantly higher than the headline statistic suggests.
What Is The Denial Rate For EB-2 NIW Applications?
The denial rate reached 44.8% for full FY2025, up from 4.3% in FY2022, which represents more than a tenfold increase in three years. In Q4 FY2025, the denial rate peaked at 64.3%, then eased to 57.4% in Q1 FY2026 and 51.9% in Q2 FY2026. Denials have outpaced approvals for three consecutive quarters as of Q2 FY2026. The main drivers include application volume growth, stricter Dhanasar adjudication, and a high share of under-evidenced petitions, rather than a fundamental change in who can qualify.
What Happens If My EB-2 NIW Is Denied?
A denial does not create a permanent bar on refiling. Many applicants choose to refile with a stronger case that directly addresses the weaknesses in the denial notice, although refiling means losing the original priority date and restarting the processing clock. Other options include filing a motion to reopen if new evidence exists, filing a motion to reconsider if the officer misapplied the law, or appealing to the Administrative Appeals Office when the record was already strong. Some founders pivot to O-1 or EB-1A when those categories better match their profile and timing.
Conclusion: Founders Can Still Win The US Market
The EB-2 NIW approval rate has declined, and the average petition now faces a tougher review. USCIS raised the evidentiary bar, and founders who meet it with specific, measurable, well-documented cases continue to succeed. Strategy and evidence quality shape outcomes more than the headline statistics.
Jumpstart Immigration combines a 98% approval rate, a 100% refund guarantee including USCIS fees, and turnaround times three to four times faster than the market. A team of American immigration lawyers builds each petition around your founder credentials, including funding, patents, media, and accelerator status, and frames them as USCIS-grade evidence under the Dhanasar standard.
Book a consultation with Jumpstart Immigration today and explore how close permanent residence in the United States may be for you as a builder.
