The EB-2 NIW approval rate was 55.3% in FY2026 Q3 (April to June 2026), up from a low of 35.7% in FY2025 Q4. The rate is calculated as approvals divided by approvals plus denials. USCIS publishes the counts, not the percentage, and pending cases are excluded.
Key Takeaways
-
The EB-2 NIW approval rate stood at 55.3% in FY2026 Q3, well below the 95.7% recorded in FY2022, after surging petition volumes and tighter evidentiary expectations. The rate has recovered for three consecutive quarters but remains below historical norms.
-
USCIS now looks for concrete results, such as revenue, citations, adopted policy, or named clients, instead of broad claims that a field matters.
-
Pending cases, RFEs, and self-selection bias mean the aggregate rate does not describe the odds for any single petition.
-
STEM researchers with strong citation records and founders with clear traction through investment, contracts, or patents often clear the Dhanasar prongs more reliably than the headline rate suggests.
-
Jumpstart Immigration files U.S. visa and green-card petitions for founders, executives, and operators worldwide, with a 98% approval rate.
Talk With Jumpstart About Your EB-2 NIW Strategy
EB-2 NIW Approval Rate by Fiscal Year (FY2022 to FY2026)
|
Period |
Approval rate |
|---|---|
|
FY2022 |
95.7% |
|
FY2023 |
79.6% |
|
FY2024 |
71.0% |
|
FY2025 full year |
55.2% |
|
FY2025 Q4 |
35.7% |
|
FY2026 Q1 |
42.5% |
|
FY2026 Q2 |
48.1% |
|
FY2026 Q3 |
55.3% |
Rates are third-party calculations from USCIS Form I-140 counts: approvals divided by approvals plus denials, with pending cases excluded. FY2026 figures are quarterly.
Why The EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Fell
Two documented forces pushed the rate from 95.7% in FY2022 to a low of 35.7% in FY2025 Q4, the first quarter on record in which USCIS denied more NIW petitions than it approved.
First, filing volume roughly tripled. NIW receipts grew from 21,973 in FY2022 to 66,276 in FY2025, which brought many more marginal and self-prepared petitions into the system. By FY2025 Q4, EB-2 petitions accounted for nearly half of all pending I-140 cases.
Second, officers began evaluating petitions under more demanding evidentiary expectations. On January 15, 2025, USCIS issued a Policy Alert, which updated its Policy Manual guidance on EB-2 NIW adjudication. USCIS characterizes this as a clarification of how the existing Matter of Dhanasar framework applies. Outcome data shows that, in practice, officers now expect measurable outcomes, such as revenue generated, citations, adopted policy, or named clients, instead of broad assertions that a field is important.
A third factor is the growing pending queue. Pending NIW cases reached 96,297 at the end of FY2026 Q3, up from 18,599 at the end of FY2022. Many cases filed during the high-volume surge of 2022 and 2023 were later decided under a more demanding evidentiary standard, which compressed the approval rate further. The rate has since recovered for three consecutive quarters through FY2026 Q3, although it still sits below earlier norms.
Additionally, since August 5, 2026, USCIS can deny a petition without first issuing a Request for Evidence if the initial filing fails to establish eligibility. This change makes the completeness and quality of the original submission more consequential than at any prior point in the NIW’s history.
What The EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Leaves Out
The aggregate rate describes decided cases in the pool. It does not describe the odds for a specific petitioner. Several structural features of the data limit how directly you can apply the number to your own case.
Pending cases are excluded. The denominator includes only approvals and denials. A total of 74,392 petitions were pending at the end of FY2025. Those cases have no outcome yet and do not appear in the rate.
RFEs are invisible. USCIS I-140 data contains no RFE field. A petition that received a Request for Evidence and was later approved counts only as an approval. One that received an RFE and was denied counts only as a denial. The rate therefore blends cases that sailed through with cases that required a full evidentiary supplement.
Self-selection shapes the pool. The aggregate mixes strong, weak, complete, and incomplete petitions. A significant share of the filing surge came from applicants who were sold the NIW as an easy self-petition, and many of them filed thin, credential-only cases. Because those cases sit in the denominator, they pull the aggregate rate down without reflecting the odds for a well-documented petition.
USCIS publishes counts, not rates. Every published approval rate is a third-party calculation based on USCIS’s raw petition counts. The agency itself does not state what percentage of petitions are approved.
Timing mismatches distort comparisons. A case decided in FY2026 Q3 may have been filed in FY2024. The quarterly rate reflects decisions made in that window, not the outcomes of petitions filed in that window.
For an individual petitioner, the rate describes the average case in a mixed pool. That pool includes many filings that do not meet the current evidentiary standard.
Which Profiles Clear The Dhanasar Prongs Most Reliably
The EB-2 NIW (Employment-Based Second Preference, National Interest Waiver) is a green-card category that lets qualified individuals self-petition by filing Form I-140 with USCIS. Before the waiver analysis begins, a petitioner must first qualify for the underlying EB-2 classification as an advanced degree professional or a person of exceptional ability. USCIS can deny a case at this threshold without ever reaching the waiver.
The waiver itself follows Matter of Dhanasar, the 2016 Administrative Appeals Office precedent that sets three requirements, often called the Dhanasar prongs.
Prong 1: Substantial Merit And National Importance. The proposed endeavor, meaning the specific work the petitioner will do in the United States, must have broad implications for a field, a region, or the public. USCIS officers assess the endeavor itself, not the importance of the field or profession. That distinction becomes clear in examples. A software engineer who adapts code for a single employer’s clients will struggle here without evidence of broader impact. A founder who builds fraud-detection infrastructure adopted by U.S. financial institutions has a defined endeavor with a traceable national benefit.
Prong 2: Well Positioned To Advance The Endeavor. Officers examine education, skills, and a documented track record. Since FY2024, adjudicators have required evidence that the petitioner’s work has already been adopted, cited, funded, or relied upon, instead of relying on credentials alone. For researchers, this usually means citations, grants, and institutional uptake. For founders, it often means revenue, signed contracts, outside investment, or accelerator participation.
Prong 3: On Balance, Beneficial To Waive The Job Offer And Labor Certification. The petitioner must explain why the national interest in their contributions is sufficiently urgent that waiting for the standard labor certification process would harm the public benefit. This prong is a common denial point when petitioners treat it as a formality instead of building a standalone argument.
Not every profile maps onto the three prongs with equal ease. The list below shows which backgrounds tend to clear them most cleanly and where petitioners must build evidence rather than simply collect it.
-
STEM researchers with publications and citations usually map cleanly onto all three prongs. A Ph.D. in a field relevant to U.S. competitiveness counts as an especially positive factor under Prong 2. Crowdsourced tracking data suggests that STEM researchers with strong citation records often fare better than the aggregate pool, although those figures are unofficial and directional.
-
Tech founders with documented traction, such as YC or Residency alumni, patent-holders, or recipients of outside investment, can satisfy all three prongs when the endeavor is defined narrowly and tied to a specific, demonstrable U.S. benefit. Broad economic claims and aspirational plans fall short under the January 2025 USCIS Policy Manual guidance.
-
Operators and executives in critical and emerging technology sectors, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, biotechnology, and cybersecurity, benefit from USCIS’s recognition of those fields as positive factors under Prong 3. The petition must make that connection explicit instead of leaving it for the officer to infer.
Have Your Profile Reviewed Against The Dhanasar Prongs
What An RFE Or Denial Looks Like In Practice
A Request for Evidence (RFE) is a formal USCIS notice that identifies specific areas where the existing petition record is not sufficient to approve the case. USCIS does not have to send an RFE before it denies. Since USCIS’s August 5, 2026 Policy Alert on Evidence, Requests for Evidence, and Notices of Intent to Deny, officers can deny a petition that is missing required initial evidence without first issuing an RFE or a NOID. When USCIS does send an RFE, the notice sets the deadline, which can be shorter than the 12-week maximum, and no extra time is granted.
RFE rates for regularly processed NIW petitions reached approximately 50% in early 2026 before declining to around 39% by March 2026, based on third-party case-tracking data. Among premium-processed cases tracked by NIWStats, an RFE was the most common first action within USCIS’s review window. The most frequently challenged prongs in tracked RFE cases were Prong 3 (beneficial to waive), Prong 2 (well positioned), and Prong 1 (national importance), in that order.
An effective RFE response adds new evidence that closes the gaps the officer identified. Submitting more of the same evidence without addressing the officer’s specific concern is the most common reason RFE responses fall short.
A denial is a final adverse decision on the petition as filed. It does not cancel H-1B, F-1, or other nonimmigrant status. After a denial, petitioners have several options:
-
Appeal to the Administrative Appeals Office if the officer misapplied the Dhanasar framework. An appeal asks the Administrative Appeals Office (AAO) to review whether the officer applied the law correctly to the record.
-
Refile a stronger petition with no mandatory waiting period. A new filing establishes a new priority date, which matters because EB-2 has a waiting line for every country, and the longest one for India and China.
One more outcome sits between an RFE and a final denial: the Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID). A NOID is distinct from an RFE. It signals a preliminary determination that the petition should be denied, carries a higher threshold to overcome, and has a response period of no more than 30 days.
EB-2 NIW Approval Rate for STEM, Research and Founder Profiles
Those prong-by-prong differences show up clearly in outcome data. In NIWStats-tracked cases decided between July and October 2026, research profiles were approved 80 of 115 times (70%), while industry profiles were approved 17 of 52 times (33%). By field, engineering, medicine and health, life sciences, and physical sciences skewed toward approval. Computer science, software, and business and finance skewed toward denial.
The divergence reflects how cleanly each profile maps onto the Dhanasar prongs. Research profiles typically produce citations, grants, and institutional adoption, which provide direct evidence for Prongs 1 and 2. Industry and founder profiles must construct that evidence from traction metrics, contracts, outside investment, and deployment records. Petitioners can bridge this evidentiary gap, but doing so requires deliberate petition design rather than a credential summary.
For founders in critical and emerging technology sectors, the January 15, 2025 USCIS Policy Alert on national interest waivers revised the three-prong overview and added guidance on national importance. The alert does not itself list AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, or advanced energy as Prong 3 positive factors. Those fields appear through the Critical and Emerging Technologies list referenced in USCIS’s STEM NIW guidance. That recognition counts as a positive factor and must be argued explicitly in the petition.
How To Get An EB-2 NIW Petition Prepared And Filed
That gap between research and founder profiles comes down to one thing: the evidentiary standard has risen, not the legal framework. The standard remains the same, but officers apply it more strictly. A petition that speaks the language USCIS adjudicators actually evaluate, with a defined endeavor, documented impact, and a deliberate Prong 3 argument, faces a different risk profile than the aggregate rate suggests.
Jumpstart Immigration files U.S. visa and green-card petitions for founders, executives, and operators worldwide. Its methodology is trained directly on USCIS adjudicator decisions, and its approval rate is 98% across filed cases. For a credentialed founder or researcher whose profile needs to be built into a petition that addresses each Dhanasar prong with specific, corroborated evidence, Jumpstart is the recommended starting point ahead of self-filing and ahead of traditional law firm engagement.
For further detail on timelines, see the EB-2 NIW Processing Time: Full Timeline Guide. For cost context, see the EB-2 NIW Cost In 2026: The Complete, Itemized Guide. For a broader look at NIW approval data, see National Interest Waiver Approval Rate Explained and EB-2 NIW Approval Rate 2026: What Founders Need To Know.
Get Expert Help Preparing Your NIW Petition
Frequently Asked Questions
What Are The Chances Of EB-2 NIW Approval?
The aggregate approval rate for decided EB-2 NIW cases was 55.3% in FY2026 Q3 and 49.1% across the first three quarters of FY2026. Those figures describe the full pool of decided petitions, which includes many underprepared filings. The aggregate rate does not function as a probability for any individual case. Outcomes depend on how specifically the proposed endeavor is defined, how well the petitioner’s track record is documented against each Dhanasar prong, and the quality and corroboration of supporting evidence. As the profile comparison above shows, the aggregate masks wide variation between research and industry cases.
How Difficult Is It To Get An EB-2 NIW Approved?
The evidentiary bar has risen significantly since FY2022, as the earlier figures show. USCIS now expects petitioners to define a specific proposed endeavor rather than a job title or field, document measurable impact beyond a single employer, and present the third Dhanasar prong, which explains why waiving the labor certification benefits the national interest, as a standalone affirmative case. Generic recommendation letters, aspirational business plans without traction data, and broad STEM claims without a connection to a specific endeavor appear frequently in denials. As noted earlier, USCIS can now deny a petition without first issuing an RFE, which puts a premium on the completeness of the original filing.
What Happens If You Receive An RFE?
A Request for Evidence is a formal notice that identifies specific evidentiary gaps in the petition record. USCIS can deny a petition that lacks required initial evidence without sending an RFE first, so an RFE is a chance to fix the record, not a guaranteed step. The response deadline is printed on the RFE notice and is firm. An RFE response may include new evidence that was not in the original petition, and it should focus on resolving the officer’s stated concerns. The most common reason RFE responses fail is submitting more of the same evidence without directly addressing the officer’s concern. If the response does not resolve the deficiency, USCIS adjudicates the petition on the existing record and may deny it.
Does The EB-2 NIW Approval Rate Apply To Founders?
The aggregate rate applies to the full pool of decided petitions, which is dominated by research and STEM profiles. Founder and entrepreneur petitions face a distinct evidentiary challenge. USCIS has clarified that ownership of a company alone does not establish national importance, that broad economic claims and job-creation projections are insufficient, and that the proposed endeavor must show broader implications beyond the founder’s own business. Founders with documented traction, such as outside investment, signed contracts, accelerator participation, patents, or deployed technology with measurable adoption, are better positioned. The critical-and-emerging-technology recognition described above applies here too, but only if the founder argues the connection directly.
What Should I Do After My EB-2 NIW Is Approved?
An approved Form I-140 establishes the petitioner’s eligibility for the EB-2 NIW category and locks in a priority date. It does not by itself confer a green card or work authorization. The next step, either filing Form I-485 to adjust status or consular processing abroad, depends on visa availability in the EB-2 category for the petitioner’s country of birth. EB-2 is not current for any country. In the November 2026 Visa Bulletin, the EB-2 Final Action Date is April 1, 2025 for most countries, October 1, 2021 for China and November 1, 2013 for India. For November 2026, USCIS lets adjustment of status applicants use the Dates for Filing chart, where the EB-2 date is March 15, 2026 for most countries. An approved I-140 preserves the priority date and allows it to be ported to a future employer under AC21 portability rules.
How Long Does It Take To Get An EB-2 NIW Approved?
USCIS posts the current Form I-140 processing time on its Case Processing Times page. With premium processing, USCIS must approve, deny or issue an RFE or NOID within 45 business days, and an RFE stops that clock. The green card wait after approval depends on the Visa Bulletin. For the full sequence, see the EB-2 NIW Processing Time: Full Timeline Guide.
Is NIW Faster Than EB-2?
The NIW is part of EB-2, so both use the same Visa Bulletin dates. The NIW is usually faster to file because it skips the job offer and the PERM labor certification. In August 2026, the Department of Labor took an average of 336 days to process a PERM application, according to its processing times data.
How Much Does EB-2 NIW Cost?
The cost has three parts: USCIS filing fees, optional premium processing and professional fees. Premium processing for an NIW petition costs $2,965, as set out in the federal regulation on premium processing. For an itemized breakdown, see the EB-2 NIW Cost In 2026: The Complete, Itemized Guide.
Does EB-2 NIW Give You A Green Card?
Yes, EB-2 NIW is a green card category. An approved Form I-140 does not grant the green card by itself. When the priority date is current, the next step is Form I-485 in the U.S. or consular processing abroad. For the full path, see the EB-2 NIW Green Card: 2026 Founder’s Guide To Self-Petition.
Is EB-2 NIW Better Than H-1B?
They serve different purposes. The H-1B is a temporary work visa that needs a U.S. employer to sponsor it, while the EB-2 NIW is a green card you can file for yourself without an employer, as described on USCIS’s EB-2 page. Many founders compare the NIW with the O-1 instead. Which path fits depends on the profile, so readers should talk to an immigration attorney.
Conclusion: How To Read The EB-2 NIW Approval Rate
The EB-2 NIW approval rate is a real and useful data point. It measures the share of decided Form I-140 National Interest Waiver petitions that USCIS approved in a given period, calculated as approvals divided by approvals plus denials, with pending cases excluded. It does not measure the probability that any specific petition will be approved. It does not capture RFEs, withdrawals, or the quality distribution of the filing pool. It also does not distinguish between a petition built to the current evidentiary standard and one assembled for the adjudication environment of FY2022.
Individual outcomes turn on the specificity of the proposed endeavor, the depth of documented impact against each Dhanasar prong, the corroboration of supporting letters, and the strength of the Prong 3 argument. A petition that addresses those elements competes against the subset of well-built petitions, which perform materially better than the headline figure suggests.
The rate has recovered for three consecutive quarters through FY2026 Q3. FY2026 Q4 (July to September 2026) includes only about two months under USCIS’s August 5, 2026 policy permitting denial without an RFE. The first full quarter under that policy is FY2027 Q1 (October to December 2026), so later data will show how much the change affects outcomes. What remains clear is that the margin for error has narrowed and that the burden of preparation rests on the petitioner from the moment of filing.
Start Your NIW Case With Jumpstart
*Jumpstart is not a law firm and does not provide legal advice. All legal services are performed by independent licensed attorneys.
