Reproduced with permission from Valor Econômico. Originally published in Portuguese on November 13, 2026, online and in print, featuring Fabiano Rocha, founder and CEO of Jumpstart. English translation by Jumpstart.
Trump Pressures Mexico to Stop Migrants
Caravan heads toward the United States following Democratic victory, but experts do not expect major changes
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened yesterday to double tariffs on Mexico if the country failed to stop the advance of more than 1,000 migrants heading toward the border between the two countries.
The migrants were encouraged by the expectation of greater flexibility in Trump’s immigration policy following the Democratic victory in last week’s congressional elections. Trump’s statement illustrates, however, what experts had already pointed out: significant and rapid changes in immigration policy are unlikely.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that no migrant caravan had reached the U.S. border since Trump returned to power. She added that the group currently traveling north had been informed that entering American territory would be very difficult and said Mexico was seeking to repatriate the migrants to their countries of origin.
“Mexico, the governor of Texas, the very liberal new governor of Texas, our great Border Patrol and ICE have already been informed. There will be zero tolerance!” Trump said.
Following Gina Hinojosa’s victory this year, Texas will be governed by a Latina woman for the first time in its history, and by a Democrat for the first time since 1995. During the campaign, Hinojosa said she agreed with the need for secure borders but stressed that the current approach generated fear and insecurity. It is a similar approach to that of James Talarico, who will become the first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988.
Border security was one of the pillars that helped Trump return to the White House in 2024, including through support from Latino voters. Among Democrats, there is a view that former President Joe Biden tried so hard to set himself apart from Trump’s first-term policies that he “lost his grip.”
However, ICE’s aggressive enforcement during Trump’s second term quickly became unpopular, including operations gone wrong that led to the deaths of Americans.
The policy not only led Latinos to vote for Democrats in this year’s elections, but also led traditional Trump supporters, small and medium-sized business owners who depend on migrant labor, to turn their backs on Republicans for the first time.
“Sectors such as hospitality and agriculture began putting pressure on senators because they were facing labor shortages, while prices kept rising. The situation became so pressing that Congress had to increase the quotas for temporary workers,” recalls Fabiano Rocha, founder and CEO of Jumpstart Immigration.
Following the defeat, Trump admitted that he may have been “too harsh” and signaled his willingness to negotiate deals with Democrats so that “good people” with “good jobs” who have lived in the country for decades can remain in the U.S. legally. On the same day, however, he named immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as his new chief of staff.
“It’s a very contradictory signal,” says Julia Gellat, associate director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy Institute (MPI). “Miller is not at all open to considering pathways to legalization for undocumented immigrants, and he himself has sabotaged bipartisan efforts in Congress to pass such changes in the past, so I don’t expect we’ll see progress on that front.”
Yesterday, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said he “could not be more proud” of ICE, which would have recorded the highest number of deportations and arrests in its history in fiscal year 2026. According to DHS, deportations increased by 78% compared with 2024, the final year of the Biden administration. Experts, including conservative pro-deportation groups, criticize the lack of transparency surrounding the data.
Regardless of the composition of Congress, the head of DHS will continue to be a political appointee of the president, says immigration attorney Murtaz Navsariwala. “To a certain extent, this structure will still influence how cases are judged,” he says. “Immigration, in general, is an Executive Branch decision, more than a congressional one.”
What Gellat expects is “many hearings” in Congress calling attention to ICE’s conduct and the areas in which the agency oversteps its authority. Passing concrete legislation, however, will be more difficult. “We haven’t seen much bipartisan legislation in recent years, so I think the chances of that happening are very small,” she says. She also notes that Democrats would need Republican support to overturn the president’s vetoes.
Regarding the budget for homeland security, there may be greater oversight from a Democratic Congress, but Trump will not be that constrained, says Eric Jacobsen, a researcher at the Inter-American Dialogue and former Democratic staff member for Latin America and the Caribbean at the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“Some people may say that, regarding immigration, there is a real opportunity to end ICE or cut its funding. But, in reality, no, because reconciliation laws approved in recent years have already made ICE funding available through 2029,” Jacobsen says.
Gellat agrees, but says Democrats may try to impose limits on ICE funding by attaching conditions to it, for example, prohibiting certain approaches. “I think they will try to use some tools to impose conditions through the appropriations process,” she says. (With news agencies)
Read the original article in Valor Econômico (in Portuguese): Trump pressiona México a barrar migrantes.
